Last year’s festive honour went to Ed Sheeran, who released multiple versions of his song Perfect in a successful bid to scoop the achievement.
In 2017 it was Clean Bandit’s Rockabye that won out, while the Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Choir’s A Bridge Over You was victorious in 2015.
Now, in 2019 it is Elton John who is currently the favourite with bookies.
He is strongly rumoured to be the voice behind a high-profile Christmas advert, and is also enjoying attention for his ongoing Farewell Tour.
He has odds of 4/1 with Ladbrokes, narrowly ahead of Ed Sheeran – who could do it for a second year on 5/1.
Lady Gaga, currently No1 alongside Bradley Cooper with Shallow from A Star Is Born, is also on 5/1.
Ariana Grande is tipped to hit Number One tomorrow, and is 6/1 to triumph on Christmas week as well.
And X Factor favourite Dalton Harris is also priced at 6/1 at this early stage.
Alex Apati of Ladbrokes said: “Elton John looks set to be the voice of [John Lewis’s] advert and that makes it incredibly likely he’ll Step Into Christmas number one spot as a result.”
The Christmas chart will be unveiled by the Official Charts Company on Friday, December 21.
It will factor into account audio streams, physical sales, digital downloads and video streams for the week spanning Friday, December 14 to Thursday, December 20.
Other contenders include Queen (8/1) following the release of Bohemian Rhapsody; and Spice Girls (10/1) amid their reunion.
ABBA had been previous favourites after they announced two new songs, but it now seems highly unlikely that they will be released before 2019.
One thing is clear: the days of an X Factor sure-fire win seem to be over.
A big reason for this, of course, is that the ITV talent show’s finales have moved slightly earlier: this year it will fall on the weekend of December 8, meaning the winner’s single will have its big chart debut on December 14, not December 21 (the latter being the Christmas chart).
Another factor is the decline in the show’s ratings, and another is the rise in prominence of streaming over sales.
X Factor winners who were No1 over Christmas have been Shayne Ward, Leona Lewis, Leon Jackson, Alexandra Burke, Matt Cardle, Sam Bailey and Ben Haenow.